A nice piece. One of the challenges that I see with the hope that Africa might become a global manufacturing hub is that Africa's population will be growing significantly at a time when population in the rest of the world is stable or declining. This means that the growth in demand for manufactured goods (think household goods, consumer products) outside Africa will likely be negative. Manufacturing as a whole is also becoming less labor-intensive, so while Africa might indeed become a significant global manufacturing center, it will probably not absorb that much of the continent's growing population. In the short-term I think Africa's greatest export will continue to be people, particularly to take up personal service jobs in developed markets that don't require much education. There will be huge tensions around this of course.
I have a priest friend from Tanzania. They have problems between Christian and Muslims. He talks about the government corruption all the time. So in order to fix these problems you need new honest leadership. Not sure how that will come about given their long history of the opposite.
This is another hopefull analysis of how Africas population growth is good for just about everyone. Well, if you don't live in Washington, but in Africa, you have to take into account how the countries have fared up till now. More than 60 years after independence. Overall it's doom and gloom. And much harder to actually make out a life today. As a average African. The leadership has been a disaster - the leadership is a disaster in most countries. Look at the two biggest economies in Africa. Nigeria and South Africa. Then don't look further. Both countries are f....d. Sad it is, but true.
Interesting post. My concern is that Africa’s population boom would limit per capita growth by limiting savings and investment. This is one idea of Charlie Robertson’s book “Time travelling economist” (https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/02/the-time-travelling-economist.html). His idea is that families with large amounts of children — above 4 — means that it is much harder for families to save. This limits the domestic pool of savings for industry and governments to borrow from. If African firms and governments do want to invest, they have to rely on either external debt in a foreign currency — which has its own risks, or on foreign ownership — which possibly weakens the incentive for property rights. I don’t see a path for growth for low-income countries without investment: boosting agriculture itself requires investments in roads, irrigation infrastructure, etc.
It's interesting to me that there is very little said about the lack of property rights, personal freedom, and transparent government when talking about Africa's growth and how to manage it.
All 3 of these are sorely lacking in even the most "successful" areas of Africa.
I would bet that the first regime/area/state that implements even 2 of the 3 items will be the most successful area of Africa that the world has ever seen.
Great post. I have wondered for some time where the primary energy will come from to support such growth. Africa today has among the lowest per capita primary energy consumption rates in the world, and increased energy supply is a pre-condition to economic growth.
A nice piece. One of the challenges that I see with the hope that Africa might become a global manufacturing hub is that Africa's population will be growing significantly at a time when population in the rest of the world is stable or declining. This means that the growth in demand for manufactured goods (think household goods, consumer products) outside Africa will likely be negative. Manufacturing as a whole is also becoming less labor-intensive, so while Africa might indeed become a significant global manufacturing center, it will probably not absorb that much of the continent's growing population. In the short-term I think Africa's greatest export will continue to be people, particularly to take up personal service jobs in developed markets that don't require much education. There will be huge tensions around this of course.
I have a priest friend from Tanzania. They have problems between Christian and Muslims. He talks about the government corruption all the time. So in order to fix these problems you need new honest leadership. Not sure how that will come about given their long history of the opposite.
This is another hopefull analysis of how Africas population growth is good for just about everyone. Well, if you don't live in Washington, but in Africa, you have to take into account how the countries have fared up till now. More than 60 years after independence. Overall it's doom and gloom. And much harder to actually make out a life today. As a average African. The leadership has been a disaster - the leadership is a disaster in most countries. Look at the two biggest economies in Africa. Nigeria and South Africa. Then don't look further. Both countries are f....d. Sad it is, but true.
Interesting post. My concern is that Africa’s population boom would limit per capita growth by limiting savings and investment. This is one idea of Charlie Robertson’s book “Time travelling economist” (https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/02/the-time-travelling-economist.html). His idea is that families with large amounts of children — above 4 — means that it is much harder for families to save. This limits the domestic pool of savings for industry and governments to borrow from. If African firms and governments do want to invest, they have to rely on either external debt in a foreign currency — which has its own risks, or on foreign ownership — which possibly weakens the incentive for property rights. I don’t see a path for growth for low-income countries without investment: boosting agriculture itself requires investments in roads, irrigation infrastructure, etc.
It's interesting to me that there is very little said about the lack of property rights, personal freedom, and transparent government when talking about Africa's growth and how to manage it.
All 3 of these are sorely lacking in even the most "successful" areas of Africa.
I would bet that the first regime/area/state that implements even 2 of the 3 items will be the most successful area of Africa that the world has ever seen.
Great post. I have wondered for some time where the primary energy will come from to support such growth. Africa today has among the lowest per capita primary energy consumption rates in the world, and increased energy supply is a pre-condition to economic growth.
good article. Let's hope that the leaders Africa deserves emerge from the burgeoning population to harness a promising future.